Today is the second and final phase of the Gujarat election. A tough campaign has been fought on the ground and this has surprised many. However, all this would mean something only if the results reflect the so-called tough fight on the ground.

Election Impact

A big win for the BJP will enable the PM to aggressively pursue his agenda of Governance in the next 12 months and place him in pole position for a big win in 2019. The Opposition will be further weakened and pushed into getting into United Front/National Front kind of alliances to fight the BJP across the country. With a huge leadership disadvantage, it is unlikely to dent the BJP significantly in 2019.

A narrow win or loss for the BJP will push the BJP further to the Left in National politics. A narrow win or loss may come from poor performance in rural and semi-urban Gujarat and this may push the Government towards more unproductive (economically) investments in rural India leading to better rural voter consolidation in favor of the BJP in 2019. It will also push the Opposition to aggressively target the BJP’s governance in the next 12-15 months. In sum,

The election will determine the national economic agenda for the next 18 months apart from becoming a good predictor of the 2019 election.

Given the significance of the election, both the parties have aggressively fought this election pumping resources and Leadership time in the election. Some of the most aggressive comments came from the PM as he wishes to win this big and drive the agenda over the next 18 months.

The Forecasts

Please visit

http://www.crowdwisdom.co.in

We are of course interested in the Forecasts as well. Our Crowd Wisdom Platform forecasts a comfortable win for the BJP

CrowdForecast 2

This is a repeat of the 2012 election and would strengthen the PM in the run-up for 2019.

We split these forecasts by supporters and compared it with the experts, this is what we found

 

CrowdForecast 4

The BJP is ranged to win anywhere between 65 and 161 seats depending on who you talk to with the average crowd wisdom forecast at 117

The Congress party is ranged to win anywhere between 17 to 113 depending on who you talk to with the average crowd wisdom forecast at 60.

As the results get declared on Monday, I expect a minimum of 10% of our Forecasters to beat Surjit Bhalla and Yogendra Yadav. In the meanwhile, the Exit poll results will further entertain us today with most of our attention on the AxisMyIndia and Chanakya Polls. Happy forecasting!